The Role of OSINT in Risk Management: A Humanitarian Perspective

The Growing Dangers Faced by Humanitarian Aid Workers

Humanitarian aid workers face significant personal risks.  In many of the places where humanitarians work, such as failing or failed states, there is a trend of increasing violence against both national and international humanitarian staff.  These threats range from deadly targeted attacks to kidnapping.

Humanitarian Worker Casualty Figures

According to a 2023 report published by Humanitarian Outcomes about attacks on aid workers in 2022:

• 116 aid workers were killed.
• 444 aid workers were victims of major attacks.
• 185 aid workers were kidnapped (in 2021).

In 2023, those numbers appear to have risen dramatically:

• 280 aid workers were killed.
• 595 aid workers were victims of major attacks.

Geographic Hot Spots that Present Significant Risks to Aid Workers

The 2023 and 2024 Aid Worker Security Reports go on to name the geographic hotspots where aid workers have faced the most direct risk of attack.  These geographic hotspots have complex local dynamics, and strong geopolitical influences which make the humanitarian operating environment incredibly challenging.  The primary locations identified as dangerous for humanitarian workers include:

• South Sudan – highest number of attacks in 2022; second highest number of fatalities in 2023.
• Gaza – highest number of fatalities in 2023.
• Sudan – second highest number of fatalities in 2023.
• Mali – second highest number of fatalities in 2022.
• Myanmar.
• Democratic Republic of Congo.
• Syria.
• South Sudan.
• Ukraine.

Attack Types, Threat Actors, and the Logic of Violence in Humanitarian Crises

Attack types in all of the geographic hotspots listed above vary, and include:

• Airstrikes/shelling.
• Assault.
• Complex Attack and IED (Improvised Explosive Device).
• Kidnapping.
• Shooting.

Both state and non-state armed groups are often belligerents in conflicts where humanitarian aid workers are harmed and, indeed, both types of actors have perpetrated these attacks for a variety of reasons, which include:

• To gain a military advantage.
• To generate fear within a target population.
• To secure medical resources for their group.
• Because of personal disputes.

Regardless of the attack type, perpetrator, or logic, the use of open-source intelligence (OSINT) provides valuable risk management for humanitarian organizations operating in complex, highly dynamic, and dangerous conflict zones.

Understanding OSINT and Its Potential For Humanitarian Worker Safety

OSINT involves collecting and analyzing information from open, publicly available sources to produce actionable intelligence.  There are five key components to OSINT, which include (1) source identification, (2) data collection, (3) processing, (4) analysis, and (5) reporting.

OSINT takes advantage of publicly available data sources, such as traditional media and social media sites like Twitter/X and Facebook.  In particular, social media can be a powerful tool that offers:

• Real-time insights into developing security situations.
• Situational awareness of events that may impact aid worker safety.
• Enhanced decision-making capabilities to support emergency plans. 

Humanitarian-focused databases such as Relief Web and The Centre for Humanitarian Data are excellent sources of information for planning across the strategic-local spectrum, and publicly available satellite imagery from sources such as Google Earth can help with mission-specific activities like route planning.

Paid-for services from information aggregators also enable OSINT in the humanitarian setting.  These paid-for OSINT situational awareness services streamline the collection, processing, and analysis of information for more rapid dissemination of intelligence, which ultimately enables informed risk management decision-making. 

OSINT can also be used to track armed groups that are potential threats to humanitarians.  Tracking belligerents helps manage the risk to humanitarian aid workers through the near real-time mapping conflict dynamics and security incidents, as well as belligerent forward lines and supportive enclaves.  This information is also dual purpose – it can be used to verify information on humanitarian access.

Specific OSINT Techniques to Enhance Aid Worker Safety

Pre-Deployment and Ongoing Risk Assessments

Comprehensive risk assessments are essential for the safety of humanitarian aid workers before and during their missions.  OSINT plays a vital role in this process by enabling organizations to gather and analyze a wide range of data about their operational areas. This includes information on local conflict dynamics, potential threats, and changing security landscapes.  Additional techniques include:

• Analyzing Open-Source data to build comprehensive area assessments.
• Monitoring social media and local news for emerging threats.
• Using satellite imagery to assess changes in conflict zones.
• Templating threat capabilities onto the terrain to determine mission-specific risks to aid workers.

Real-Time Situational Awareness

Real-time situational awareness is crucial for humanitarian aid workers operating in volatile environments. OSINT techniques can provide up-to-the-minute information on evolving security situations, allowing aid organizations to make informed decisions quickly.   This is done by:

• Leveraging social media monitoring for early warning of incidents.
• Tracking population movements and potential humanitarian needs.
• Identifying safe routes and potential checkpoints.
• Answering immediate information requirements for rapid decision making. 

Incident Analysis and Response

When security incidents occur, rapid and effective responses are critical. OSINT techniques can support incident analysis and response efforts by providing valuable information in the immediate aftermath of an event. This can include details about the nature of the incident, potential perpetrators, and the broader security context, all of which can inform response strategies and help prevent future occurrences.  Additional techniques include:

• Leveraging OSINT to gather information on security incidents in the conflict zone.
• Pre-attack communication and dispatching of quick reaction and recovery forces.
• Finding, recovering, and repatriating missing or isolated aid workers.
• Analyzing relevant threat and incident patterns to improve future security measures.

OSINT Supports Humanitarian Missions and Reduces the Risk to Aid Workers

OSINT supports humanitarian missions and reduces the risk to aid workers by providing critical intelligence and situational awareness in complex and dangerous environments.  By leveraging open-source data, humanitarian organizations can conduct more comprehensive risk assessments, maintain real-time awareness of evolving threats, and respond more effectively to security incidents.  This intelligence allows for better-informed decision-making, improved resource allocation, and enhanced safety protocols for aid workers operating in high-risk areas.

The use of OSINT techniques enables organizations to map conflict dynamics, identify potential threats, verify information on humanitarian access, plan safe routes, avoid dangerous areas, and ensure aid reaches those who need it most.  Moreover, OSINT can help track population movements, assess changing security landscapes, and provide early warnings of emerging crises.

As the humanitarian landscape becomes increasingly complex and dangerous, the integration of OSINT into risk management strategies is essential.  Organizations that fail to leverage these tools may find themselves at a significant disadvantage in protecting their staff and effectively delivering aid.  For humanitarian organizations seeking to enhance their risk management capabilities and protect their aid workers, professional OSINT services from companies like Convoy Group can provide invaluable support.  These services offer tailored intelligence solutions, real-time monitoring, and expert analysis to help humanitarians navigate the challenges of operating in high-risk and politically sensitive crises.