Place of Worship Security: Understanding the Terrorist Attack Cycle

Understanding the Vulnerability of Places of Worship

Terrorist attacks against religious institutions have been on the rise in the United States since 2000.  Places of worship have been one of the most common targets of terrorist groups for decades. They can be appealing targets for terrorists due to their openness to strangers, perceived lack of capable security, and the symbolic potential of an attack.

These attacks have varied in intensity, targeted religions, and type of violence, but all terrorist attacks can cause damage to the community beyond the immediate physical consequences – these events can shatter a religious community’s sense of security, which is one of their greatest assets as an institution.

Terrorist attacks are a significant threat to any religious community, and preventing these attacks requires a collaborative effort across multiple stakeholders.  Importantly, individuals do not have to be law enforcement or security experts to contribute to their religious community’s safety.  Preventing terrorist attacks also does not require an atmosphere of paranoia or suspicion. 

Terrorist plots follow a general formula called the “Terrorist Attack Cycle.” Educating community members on the Terrorist Attack Cycle will increase safety, alleviate fears for religious institutions, and enable places of worship to understand how to implement security measures to reduce the likelihood of attack at each phase in the attack cycle.  By raising awareness of the Terrorist Attack Cycle, members of your organization will be able to recognize behaviors that preclude terrorist attacks and take appropriate steps to disrupt the cycle.  This article will explain the eight phases of the Terrorist Attack Cycle and why understanding the Cycle is important to your religious organization.

The Terrorist Attack Cycle in the Context of Places of Worship

The Terrorist Attack Cycle consists of eight phases:

• Preliminary Target Selection
• Initial Surveillance
• Final Target Selection
• Planning
• Rehearsal
• Pre-Attack Surveillance
• Execution
• Escape and Exploitation

Phase #1 of the Terrorist Attack Cycle: Preliminary Target Selection

The first phase of the Terrorist Attack Cycle is preliminary target selection. During this phase, a terrorist organization, or lone actor, is deciding what and who to target. Terrorists choose their targets by various metrics, but in this phase, they will primarily select targets based on their political motivation, target vulnerability, and perceived likelihood of success.  Identifying or interdicting terrorists in this phase is challenging because internet searches and subtle preliminary target surveillance are relatively low signature activities.  For places of worship, it is essential to know what type of groups might target your religious institution,  as well as the capabilities and intent of the relevant threat groups, in order to deter potential aggressors from targeting your religious community.

Phase #2 of the Terrorist Attack Cycle: Initial Surveillance

During the Initial Surveillance phase, the terrorist is gathering more information so he can make an informed target selection. The internet can only provide so much information, so terrorists will oftentimes conduct physical surveillance on the targeted place of worship. Because terrorists must be in proximity to your religious institution in order to conduct physical surveillance, they are vulnerable to detection at this time. Terrorists will find the best vantage points to observe their target, will potentially take photographs and videos, and may even attempt to conduct a physical penetration test.

Phase #3 of the Terrorist Attack Cycle: Final Target Selection

In this phase of the attack cycle, the terrorist group or lone actor selects its final target. Terrorists look for vulnerable targets with perceived low levels of security to increase their chances of success. Having a strong visible security presence and making surveillance difficult increases the likelihood terrorists will pass over your place of worship in the Final Target Selection Phase.  Terrorists will sometimes still attack a hard target, but it is less likely because a thwarted attack will likely not have the intended psychological value.

Phase #4 of the Terrorist Attack Cycle: Planning

Terrorists prepare their attack during the Planning Phase. Planning encapsulates many different activities that can include training, recruiting, purchasing supplies, and other visually identifiable activities. Your organization probably does not have the abilities to observe these activities, but at this phase, terrorists can expose themselves to law enforcement or private security enablers. Terrorist groups could be breaking laws conducting most of the activities associated with planning. Local, State, and Federal agencies are integrated through the National Star Initiative (NSI). The NSI makes information sharing and coordination against potential terrorist and terrorism easier for law enforcement.

Phase #5 of the Terrorist Attack Cycle: Rehearsal

During the Rehearsal Phase, the terrorist group will practice their attack. Each group or individual will go about rehearsing the attack differently depending on their capabilities and the permissiveness of the environment. Terrorist groups will most likely try to practice in seclusion, so your religious community may not be able to identify any suspicious activities in this phase. Terrorists will intensively practice getting around specific security procedures you have in place, and attempt to identify flaws in their plan as well as gain new insights into their target during this phase. 

Phase #6 of the Terrorist Attack Cycle: Pre-Attack Surveillance

Pre-Attack Surveillance is the final phase before the attack. This is the last phase where a terrorist attack can be deterred, diminished or interdicted. Thankfully, terrorist groups run significant risk of detection in this phase. Terrorists will conduct more observation to finalize details of their attack. Terrorists could be emboldened by their confidence in their eminent attack and behave without taking significant efforts to conceal their actions. Pre-Attack Surveillance can include suspicious activities like photographing or videoing the target site, individuals attempting to access restricted areas, and individuals asking security personnel or community members suspicious questions. Suspicious activity can be reported through the NSI, faith-based community security programs, law enforcement, or third-party private security. NSI reporting information is available online for civilians.

Phase #7 of the Terrorist Attack Cycle: Execution

The unfortunate reality is that well prepared and secured communities may still be attacked by a terrorist group or radicalized lone actor. Preparing for and understanding the Terrorist Attack Cycle enables your religious community to make any terrorist attack far more difficult for the terrorist, which likely reduces the potential for physical damage. Terrorist attacks can start quickly and with little warning. Indicators that an attack is imminent can include suspiciously parked cars and unattended backpacks. Interestingly, property damage is the most common type of terrorist attack against religious institutions.

Phase #8 of the Terrorist Attack Cycle: Escape and Exploitation

Outside of suicide attacks, terrorists will plan an escape route. They will want to live to launch other attacks and capitalize on the one they just committed. The terrorist organization or lone actor will also look to exploit the attack for political gain.

Understanding Terrorism Against Places of Worship and Implementing Security Solutions

Awareness and education are the first steps places of worship can take to address the Terrorist Attack Cycle. Understanding the threat terrorism poses to religious communities, and how the Terrorist Attack Cycle works, raises awareness in the community and decreases the ability of terrorists to execute successful attacks against places of worship.  Importantly, even crimes that are usually not associated with terrorism, like property damage and arson, can be understood as terrorism when a number of conditions are met.

For religious institutions seeking expert guidance on protecting their communities from terrorist threats, private security companies like Pittsburgh-based Convoy Group offer specialized services.  Our team of security professionals can provide tailored security program development, armed security, risk assessments, security planning, intelligence, and training programs designed specifically for places of worship.  By partnering with security experts, religious communities can ensure they’re taking proactive steps to safeguard their members and preserve their sense of sanctuary.